Great Falls Tribune

 

September 2, 2008

 

Power transmission shortages must be fixed soon

By LLEW JONES

The best analogy to describe the current state of power transmission in Montana in the U.S., is to compare it to the highway system prior to the Interstate. A trucker, hauling freight across this country literally wandered from county to county, sometimes traveling on good roads with large capacity bridges while at other times struggling to get across small congested highways.

Before the Interstate, trips were slower and particular routes often had very limited load capacities.

Our electric transmission grid today is much the same. Getting energy from areas of production to areas of demand often is not even possible, and, when possible, often requires a cost-prohibitive routing that is very capacity limited.

As a nation we must address our transmission shortages if we are to address our energy shortages.

Sometimes certain reports just catch the eye. Consider the statement in the July 21 study commissioned by the Pacific NorthWest Economic Region: "If the top five planned transmission projects in the Pacific Northwest are not built, the region will lose out on $55-85 billion in economic activity and up to 60,000 jobs annually over the next 25 years."

So what is PNWER? It is a regional U.S.-Canadian forum dedicated to encouraging global economic competitiveness and preserving our world-class natural environment. Its members include: Alaska, Alberta, British Columbia, Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Washington and the Yukon. PNWER is recognized by both the United States and Canada as the "model" for regional and binational cooperation because of its proven success.

Three key lines (15 or so were looked at) — Northern Lights, MSTIE, and MATL — are being proposed in Montana. Of these, the proposed Lethbridge-to-Great Falls MATL (Montana-Alberta Tie Line) project is furthest along. The estimated total impact to the entire region if just the MATL project were not built is $56 billion and 102,000 jobs lost. This seems almost beyond belief, yet this is the conclusion reached by this study.

Other lines have even greater impacts. (This entire report can be reviewed by visiting www.pnwersenergyhorizon.com/filesonline and clicking on the PNWERReport link.)

In addition to PNWER, we also now have the Pickens plan. Essentially the Pickens plan says that, "Building wind facilities in the corridor that stretches from the Texas panhandle to North Dakota could produce 20 percent of the electricity for the United States at a cost of $1 trillion. It would take another $200 billion to build the capacity to transmit that energy to cities and towns. That's a lot of money, but it's a one-time cost. And compared to the $700 billion we spend on foreign oil every year, it's a bargain."

It further discusses how this development would be a great investment in rural America while potentially leading to reductions in the domestic demand for expensive gas generated electricity.

So who is Pickens? T. Boone Pickens, a billionaire, a corporate raider, an oil man, and a well-known fund manger out of Texas has a long history of success in the energy arena. While it goes without saying that Pickens is looking to profit from a build-out here, his vision that this is a wise investment does add credibility.

Pickens is engaged in a nationwide advertising program aimed at motivating the public to encourage the government to take action and support this build-out, in particular the transmission expansion. Given the historic lethargy and resistance to change that is inherent in the government and its underlying bureaucracy, this is definitely a monumental task. The Picken's plan can be review at: www.pickensplan.com.

So what does this mean to Montana?

Montana is characterized as having one of the nation's most concentrated and vast energy resources, including wind. We stand on the brink potential economic development that could become a cornerstone of prosperity for our state now and in the future.

However, to begin, we must first address shortcomings.

For one, we have very limited transmission. Achieving the necessary compromises required to build new power lines is extremely difficult as a balance between development, the environment, and private property rights must be found.

For instance, MATL has been in process for more than three years, yet ground has yet to been broken.

Next we have regulatory agencies that can often seem to move at a snail's pace. From a regulator's point of view the safest action seems to often be no action. In business this inability to take action is referred to as analysis paralysis.

Finally, we have a vast array of naysayers to overcome. On the left, environmental extremists seem opposed to every opportunity and are now adding wind energy and the subsequent transmission lines to the list of items opposed.

Their primary tool is using the court system to create endless delays thus making it uneconomical for developers to invest in Montana. On the extreme right we have those that resist all new technology or ideas. Just as their predecessors cursed the "horseless carriage" or berated the Hoover Dam, they insist that wind energy won't work and that almost any plan for energy expansion is fatally flawed.

They grasp at every report showing a technologic challenge or hurdle to be overcome, magnifying every setback with "I told you sos" while working to sell the citizens that they are being "hoodwinked" into compromising themselves in accepting any new development, often citing some complex conspiracy theme.

Perhaps PNWER and Pickens combined with the painful sting of expensive energy will motivate the public to overcome these challenges. The reality is that wind can be an affordable and clean partof the U.S. energy portfolio.

Yes, there will be challenges, and even some failures, but 20 years from now, wind will be a large part of the U.S. energy mix. The only real question is whether Montana will be a player.